Tuesday, 15 March 2011


Vice president Kalonzo Musyoka is a as described by Ranneberger, an opportunist. He has learnt to take advantage of events for his benefit. In 2008, he accepted the vice president role despite the tension that was in the country. He knew that was the only way he would remain relevant for the next five years, and true to his beliefs, he has remained relevant in the Kenyan political scene. He is a man driven by a big thirst for power and that is the reason why he is aiming at nothing but the presidency, come 2012. He knows to well that his chances are close to nil, especially if Ocampo fails to strike. He is however out to take advantage of the situation hoping to gain big from the six, and especially the two front runners' trial. He has for the past several weeks traversed  the globe in what has been dubbed shuttle diplomacy. Kalonzo is a lawyer by proffession and though he has hardly practised, the knowledge is in him. For that he knows too well that his probability of succeeding is close to nil. Then why has he done this job so diligently and with a lot of dedication? What is his game plan? And does he really want the six tried at home? The answer to the last question is NO, and here are six reasons as to why.

1. Kalonzo Musyoka is not as stupid as people think he is. Many analysts have consistently claimed that the vice president is been used for the interest of the two main people in the list, namely Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto. Kalonzo knows this too well, he knows that it is nowhere in the president's wildest dreams that  he has appeared as a preffered  presidential candidate. He knows that the president has already settled on his project. That simply means that Kalonzo will not get the backing of the president. The president and his inner circle are just using him for their personal reasons and it is just a matter of time before he is dumped. There have been some rumours of returning Ruto to the cabinet when the election nears and the VP has not been taking that lightly whether true or false, reason being, the Eldoret North MP would return as a much senior cabinet member. That would lead to Uhuru, most probably taking the VP position. Kalonzo is not ready for a humiliation and for that he wants Ocampo to act fast.

2. The most obvious reason why the vice president would not want to see a local tribunal in place is the votes at stake. He knows too well that he would very easily get sympathy votes from central and the rift. He has positioned himself as a fighter for the two communities and is hoping he will be recognized for that when Ocampo strikes. That can only happen if Ocampo strikes.

3. If the trials are carried out at the Hague, he knows too well that his main competitor Raila, would get all the blame for that. That will deny the prime minister any votes he had hoped to get in the affected areas. Kalonzo going by the assumption that the election will be a two horse race, calculates that any votes that doesn't go Raila's way will be his in the bag. Between now and 2012, he is expected to work overtime to link Raila and his shuttle diplomacy failure. Kuttuny said recently that the prime minister met senior UN officials in a view to making sure the trials continue. Such thesis are expected to flood in the coming days.

4. Another very personal reason why the vice president wants them tried at the Hague is because of the last general elections. It is believed that Kalonzo has never forgiven Ruto for failing to support him in 2007. Ruto's support could have changed everything, he believes, and he sees himself as having been betrayed.

5. Kalonzo is even looking at post 2012. He believes that if he manages to navigate his way to state house with Uhuru and Ruto around, his tenure will be on hell of a time. He believes that it will be very difficult for him to betray the people who will have helped him ascend to power by setting up a local tribunal. He will also face untold criticism for protecting criminals if he decides not to set up a local tribunal. Whatever way he decides to go, he sees himself as not serving a second term. To clear the way for a smooth Kalonzo presidency, he wants Ocampo to strike and fast.

6. The last reason why he hopes his shuttle diplomacy fails, is the possibility of the Ocampo six incriminating Kibaki and Raila. Such a possibility is very much likely and may result in the two been summoned also. That may only happen after 2012 and even if Raila will be president, such a move would decrease his chances of getting a second term. Kalonzo believes he is young enough to wait another ten years.

Kalonzo has made it upon himself to wear a very dedicated face in his fight to bring a home based justice system yet he wants the exact opposite to happen. He knows that the Ocampo six don't trust him and he is out to prove them right.

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