THE BEGINNING OF THE END OF KALONZO MUSYOKA

This is totally the beginning of the end of vice president Stephen Kalonzo Musyoka for it is a well known fact that the last person's path anyone would wish to cross is the first lady's. The VP did just that. Any little hope of a presidential endorsement from the first family ended soon after wikileaks struck. The VP was aware of what was about to get out and what will continue coming and he was quick to call the leaks the work of a very creative mind. Whatever was in his mind when he was telling the Ameerican ambassador what he told him, whether true or false was nowhere near 'a leak would occur'. Thats why politicians, and not just Kalonzo were trembling when they heard of wikileaks, remember Jamhuri day.
Kalonzo has officially broken out with the first family and his presidential ambition for 2012 has been severely damaged. He was quick to quell any thoughts that he actually said that by once again brandishing them some work of a very creative mind. I believe the strong face he wears on TV is not the same he will be wearing when he steps into state house. I even doubt he will enter it any time soon. It is very predictable what will happen when he bumps into Lucy on the corridor.

KALONZO LOSING EASTERN GRIP.

Vice president Kalonzo Musyoka is walking on a tight rope in his eastern region. According to sources close to the VP, Kalonzo is afraid of losing his backyard to new entrants and his perenial arch rival Charity Ngilu. Documents been held by the VP's close allies point to meetings Charity Ngilu has been having with local leaders in the region in a view to reclaim her support. What is even more worrying to the VP is the fact that most of those local leaders approached by Ngilu have assured her of their support. Kalonzo has all along known that his grip of the region has been fragile and he somehow managed to hold it in 2007 only because he ran for presidency. He knows that the way things stand in PNU, he can never get their endorsement come 2012 and that will complicate his run for the presidency. He sees a risk of been out of parliament if he runs for presidency without a strong backyard.

Ngilu aside, the other big threat to the vice president's grip of eastern is Mutula Kilonzo. Rumours have been doing rounds that Mutula's recent actions of standing by the constitution always are his preparation of a higher office. The VP knows too well that the minister of justice was admired most by the public during the latest events as opposed to him who emerged as a PNU-KK puppet. Wavinya Ndeti is another person who the vice president sees as a potential threat in his reign. However Wavinya is considered close to Ngilu and Kalonzo expects that she would support the water minister.

The vice president is said to be seeking services of  experiences strategists and political analysts to work his way to the eastern throne.

KALONZO, PNU'S ENEMY NUMBER TWO.

Vice president Kalonzo Musyoka is a worried man we can now reveal. According to sources close to the vice president, Kalonzo is afraid of been sidelined by the president and his close associates who see him as the second biggest threat after Raila Odinga in the race to state house. Ruto and Uhuru have for sometime now failed to even mention Kalonzo in political rallies as they used to previously. "The KKK alliance has been turned to KK," one analyst was heard saying. In a well calculated move, the Ocampo two are out to ensure the vice president does not out shine them on any thing. They have even started to forge closer ties with Eugene Wamalwa who they consider as having little urge to ascend to the presidency, at least in 2012. This is in line with eliminating competition from within.
  It would have been expected that a lot of complementary statements would be given to Kalonzo for his effort to bring the trials home. That has not happenned so far. It is believed that the two wants Kalonzo's image to be seen as that of a failure and for that will go any mile to be far from the 'failure'. Many analysts think that the vice president is stupid enough to work day and night for the Ocampo six. The latest opinion article by Mutua Makau points to this.It read in part..

"Mr Musyoka is being played – like a flute – by President Mwai Kibaki. He erroneously thinks the PNU/KKK alliance will anoint him Mr Kibaki’s successor. Of the three PNU/KKK supremos, he thinks he’s got the best shot at State House.

This is why. He’s convinced that Finance minister Uhuru Kenyatta is “unelectable” because Kenyans will simply not put another Kikuyu in charge. He believes that the Kikuyu are beholden to him because he saved Mr Kibaki – by keeping the State House in the House of Mumbi – after the 2007 election.

He believes that Mr Kibaki and Mr Kenyatta promised to back him in 2012. This is illusory, but that’s why Mr Musyoka is “carrying water” on the Ocampo Six.

Mr Musyoka thinks that Eldoret North MP William Ruto can’t be a serious presidential candidate, and is simply a cog in the PNU/KKK plot. In his view, the Kikuyu will not support Mr Ruto for the State House."read the full article

 However, the vice president is very well aware that the president will only endorse him as the final most option. He knows that he is been used and he also knows that he will eventually be dumped. I would expect him not to know of this if he has no friends, no access to media and no brains. He has all of those and that is the reason PNU-KK is planning his downfall. They know too well that Kalonzo has the capability to overtake Raila and become their number one enemy, and they are not ready to get there. The VP will be sidelined till the election date, unless there emerges another chance for him to be used.
It is also within the PNU knowledge that the shuttle diplomacy efforts by Kalonzo may have been used to increase his overseas contacts. It is understood that Kalonzo believes that a serious presidential contender in 2012 should match Raila's overseas contacts and he took advantage of PNU-KK bait to work for him. Events coming in the next weeks will be watched keenly and you should expect more Kalonzo visits to the Rift valley and Central to get the hearts of the people he has 'worked' hard to protect 'unsuccessfully'.
 Another issue that is making PNU wary of the Vice president is the small matter of Kamukunji by election. The vice president is said to be demanding for PNU's support after having supported the latter in previous by-elections. The vice president is not ready to support Simon Mbugua, who PNU would naturally not be ready to let go. Though this issue has not been highlighted much in the mainstream media, it is believed to be a very big issue behind the scenes. PNU sees Kalonzo, the previously obedient kid, as having started to grow horns and are not ready to take any more. Kalonzo knows this and is now scheming his every move with extreme caution.

SIX REASONS WHY KALONZO WANTS OCAMPO SIX TRIED AT THE HAGUE

Vice president Kalonzo Musyoka is a as described by Ranneberger, an opportunist. He has learnt to take advantage of events for his benefit. In 2008, he accepted the vice president role despite the tension that was in the country. He knew that was the only way he would remain relevant for the next five years, and true to his beliefs, he has remained relevant in the Kenyan political scene. He is a man driven by a big thirst for power and that is the reason why he is aiming at nothing but the presidency, come 2012. He knows to well that his chances are close to nil, especially if Ocampo fails to strike. He is however out to take advantage of the situation hoping to gain big from the six, and especially the two front runners' trial. He has for the past several weeks traversed  the globe in what has been dubbed shuttle diplomacy. Kalonzo is a lawyer by proffession and though he has hardly practised, the knowledge is in him. For that he knows too well that his probability of succeeding is close to nil. Then why has he done this job so diligently and with a lot of dedication? What is his game plan? And does he really want the six tried at home? The answer to the last question is NO, and here are six reasons as to why.


1. Kalonzo Musyoka is not as stupid as people think he is. Many analysts have consistently claimed that the vice president is been used for the interest of the two main people in the list, namely Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto. Kalonzo knows this too well, he knows that it is nowhere in the president's wildest dreams that  he has appeared as a preffered  presidential candidate. He knows that the president has already settled on his project. That simply means that Kalonzo will not get the backing of the president. The president and his inner circle are just using him for their personal reasons and it is just a matter of time before he is dumped. There have been some rumours of returning Ruto to the cabinet when the election nears and the VP has not been taking that lightly whether true or false, reason being, the Eldoret North MP would return as a much senior cabinet member. That would lead to Uhuru, most probably taking the VP position. Kalonzo is not ready for a humiliation and for that he wants Ocampo to act fast.

2. The most obvious reason why the vice president would not want to see a local tribunal in place is the votes at stake. He knows too well that he would very easily get sympathy votes from central and the rift. He has positioned himself as a fighter for the two communities and is hoping he will be recognized for that when Ocampo strikes. That can only happen if Ocampo strikes.

3. If the trials are carried out at the Hague, he knows too well that his main competitor Raila, would get all the blame for that. That will deny the prime minister any votes he had hoped to get in the affected areas. Kalonzo going by the assumption that the election will be a two horse race, calculates that any votes that doesn't go Raila's way will be his in the bag. Between now and 2012, he is expected to work overtime to link Raila and his shuttle diplomacy failure. Kuttuny said recently that the prime minister met senior UN officials in a view to making sure the trials continue. Such thesis are expected to flood in the coming days.

4. Another very personal reason why the vice president wants them tried at the Hague is because of the last general elections. It is believed that Kalonzo has never forgiven Ruto for failing to support him in 2007. Ruto's support could have changed everything, he believes, and he sees himself as having been betrayed.

5. Kalonzo is even looking at post 2012. He believes that if he manages to navigate his way to state house with Uhuru and Ruto around, his tenure will be on hell of a time. He believes that it will be very difficult for him to betray the people who will have helped him ascend to power by setting up a local tribunal. He will also face untold criticism for protecting criminals if he decides not to set up a local tribunal. Whatever way he decides to go, he sees himself as not serving a second term. To clear the way for a smooth Kalonzo presidency, he wants Ocampo to strike and fast.

6. The last reason why he hopes his shuttle diplomacy fails, is the possibility of the Ocampo six incriminating Kibaki and Raila. Such a possibility is very much likely and may result in the two been summoned also. That may only happen after 2012 and even if Raila will be president, such a move would decrease his chances of getting a second term. Kalonzo believes he is young enough to wait another ten years.

Kalonzo has made it upon himself to wear a very dedicated face in his fight to bring a home based justice system yet he wants the exact opposite to happen. He knows that the Ocampo six don't trust him and he is out to prove them right.